The widening conflict in the Middle East is reviving memories of the 1970s oil crises, with economists and market strategists warning that a sustained disruption to energy supplies could trigger stagflation — the toxic combination of stagnant economic growth and rising prices that plagued the global economy decades ago. Brent crude climbed back toward $100 a barrel Thursday as Iran continued to strike energy targets across the Gulf region. The warning signs of a deeper economic shock are accumulating rapidly.
Iran targeted merchant ships near the Strait of Hormuz, fuel storage in Bahrain, tankers near Iraq’s ports, and export facilities adjacent to Oman’s Mina Al Fahal terminal. Three crew members aboard the Thai vessel Mayuree Naree were reported trapped. Iraq halted all crude exports and Oman cleared its main terminal. The Strait of Hormuz has been functionally closed since February 28.
Brent crude gained 9% to briefly touch $100.29 a barrel before settling at around $98. West Texas Intermediate rose 8.6% to $94.75. Oil has surged from $60 a barrel at the year’s start to a weekly peak of $119, before partially retreating on mixed signals from Washington. Iran’s military escalated its rhetoric, warning of $200 oil.
The IEA released 400 million barrels of emergency crude in a historic coordinated action by 32 member nations. The US contributed 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, with deliveries beginning within a week. President Trump pledged to continue the military campaign against Iran and said the reserve release would lower prices.
Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $71 a barrel. Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid warned explicitly of stagflation risk. Asian markets fell while European gas prices climbed 7.7%.
